Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-33 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-33 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$17,877 Объем
$17,877 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
6%
$17,877 Объем
$17,877 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$7,029 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$10,848 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Объем
$17,877Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$17,877Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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