**Trader consensus centers on 31–33°C as the most probable range for Karachi’s maximum temperature on August 20, 2026, reflecting stable late-monsoon conditions and model agreement.** Current forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather project a daytime high near 31°C, consistent with climatological averages for mid-to-late August when highs typically reach 30–32°C amid high humidity and sea-breeze moderation. Recent observations (around 31°C on August 17–18) and short-range guidance show no significant heatwave or cooling influence from stronger monsoon flows or cloud cover changes. The 59% implied probability on 32°C captures this baseline expectation, while the 24% on 33°C accounts for minor upward variability possible with reduced cloudiness or lighter winds; the 18% on 31°C reflects the lower end of ensemble spreads. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored near historical norms for the period.