**Current Met Office guidance points to a 25°C maximum in London on August 5, supported by high pressure and southerly warm-air advection following an unusually warm early-August period.** Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with most runs clustering between 24–26°C depending on the timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover. The tied 35.5% market shares on 25°C and 26°C reflect this narrow uncertainty band and typical short-range model variability at 48–72 hours lead time. Historical August maxima average near 22°C, so the current setup sits above the long-term baseline but well below recent heatwave peaks. Updated model runs and the next Met Office briefing will determine whether probabilities shift toward 26°C or consolidate around 25°C.