Recent KMA observations and short-range model guidance indicate persistent summer high pressure over the Korean Peninsula, with current daytime highs frequently reaching 33–36°C amid high humidity and light winds. For August 5, ensemble forecasts from global and regional models converge on a most likely maximum near 34–35°C at Incheon/Seoul stations, though a nearby tropical depression (KMA No. 24) introduces uncertainty by potentially increasing cloud cover or triggering scattered showers that could limit peak heating. This scientific spread—centered on clear-sky insolation versus modest moisture advection—explains the closely matched market probabilities for 33°C through 36°C, with traders weighting the latest 12–48-hour model runs and KMA updates.