Trader consensus clusters around 29–30°C for Shanghai’s August 12 high because recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show the city under a weak subtropical ridge with modest southwesterly flow, limiting afternoon convection while allowing surface heating to peak near these values. The tight spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes stems from small differences in modeled cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification on the day, with limited model agreement on exact timing of any sea-breeze or thunderstorm cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and station observations through August 10 continue to support this narrow range, though the next 48-hour model cycles and 12 August morning soundings could still shift the most likely maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Шанхае 12 августа?
29°C 42%
30°C 33%
28°C 22%
31°C 6%
24°C или ниже
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
22%
29°C
42%
30°C
33%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C или выше
<1%
29°C 42%
30°C 33%
28°C 22%
31°C 6%
24°C или ниже
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
22%
29°C
42%
30°C
33%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C или выше
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around 29–30°C for Shanghai’s August 12 high because recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show the city under a weak subtropical ridge with modest southwesterly flow, limiting afternoon convection while allowing surface heating to peak near these values. The tight spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes stems from small differences in modeled cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification on the day, with limited model agreement on exact timing of any sea-breeze or thunderstorm cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and station observations through August 10 continue to support this narrow range, though the next 48-hour model cycles and 12 August morning soundings could still shift the most likely maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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