Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Шанхае 24 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Шанхае 24 августа?
32°C 33%
31°C 31%
30°C 18%
29°C 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
24 авг. 2026 г.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
10%
30°C
18%
31°C
31%
32°C
33%
33°C
9%
34°C
5%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 33%
31°C 31%
30°C 18%
29°C 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
24 авг. 2026 г.
25°C or below
$0 Объем
<1%
26°C
$0 Объем
<1%
27°C
$0 Объем
<1%
28°C
$0 Объем
1%
29°C
$5 Объем
10%
30°C
$5 Объем
18%
31°C
$71 Объем
31%
32°C
$42 Объем
33%
33°C
$11 Объем
9%
34°C
$11 Объем
5%
35°C or higher
$0 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$145Дата окончания
24 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$145Дата окончания
24 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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