Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$117,195 Объем
$117,195 Объем
4 мая 2026 г.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$117,195 Объем
$117,195 Объем
4 мая 2026 г.
18°C or below
$637 Объем
No
19°C
$612 Объем
No
20°C
$1,479 Объем
No
21°C
$10,838 Объем
No
22°C
$14,126 Объем
No
23°C
$17,534 Объем
No
24°C
$16,937 Объем
Yes
25°C
$18,143 Объем
No
26°C
$16,013 Объем
No
27°C
$11,304 Объем
No
28°C or higher
$9,572 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Объем
$117,195Дата окончания
4 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$117,195Дата окончания
4 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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