Recent Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks and ensemble model runs point to typical early-August conditions over Tokyo, with a subtropical ridge supporting daytime highs near the 31.8 °C climatological normal. Scattered showers expected on August 5 could limit peak heating and introduce slight downward bias, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30–31 °C outcomes. Urban heat-island amplification and high humidity remain standard, while any short-term shift in steering flow or cloud cover could nudge the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for further probability adjustments ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 5 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Токио 5 августа?
30°C 38%
31°C 26%
29°C 19%
32°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 авг. 2026 г.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
19%
30°C
38%
31°C
26%
32°C
9%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 38%
31°C 26%
29°C 19%
32°C 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
5 авг. 2026 г.
25°C or below
$52 Объем
<1%
26°C
$340 Объем
1%
27°C
$49 Объем
2%
28°C
$232 Объем
7%
29°C
$154 Объем
19%
30°C
$169 Объем
38%
31°C
$59 Объем
26%
32°C
$121 Объем
9%
33°C
$69 Объем
4%
34°C
$41 Объем
1%
35°C or higher
$62 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks and ensemble model runs point to typical early-August conditions over Tokyo, with a subtropical ridge supporting daytime highs near the 31.8 °C climatological normal. Scattered showers expected on August 5 could limit peak heating and introduce slight downward bias, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30–31 °C outcomes. Urban heat-island amplification and high humidity remain standard, while any short-term shift in steering flow or cloud cover could nudge the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for further probability adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Объем
$1,347Дата окончания
5 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks and ensemble model runs point to typical early-August conditions over Tokyo, with a subtropical ridge supporting daytime highs near the 31.8 °C climatological normal. Scattered showers expected on August 5 could limit peak heating and introduce slight downward bias, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30–31 °C outcomes. Urban heat-island amplification and high humidity remain standard, while any short-term shift in steering flow or cloud cover could nudge the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for further probability adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,347Дата окончания
5 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks and ensemble model runs point to typical early-August conditions over Tokyo, with a subtropical ridge supporting daytime highs near the 31.8 °C climatological normal. Scattered showers expected on August 5 could limit peak heating and introduce slight downward bias, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30–31 °C outcomes. Urban heat-island amplification and high humidity remain standard, while any short-term shift in steering flow or cloud cover could nudge the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for further probability adjustments ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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