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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

0 47%

>5 33.0%

1 31%

4 29%

Polymarket
NEW

0 47%

>5 33.0%

1 31%

4 29%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$143 Объем

47%

1

$215 Объем

31%

2

$71 Объем

47%

3

$50 Объем

42%

4

$24 Объем

29%

5

$24 Объем

33%

>5

$41 Объем

33%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «0» с 47%, за ним следует «2» с 47%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 47¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 27, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?» — «0» с 47%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Следующий ближайший исход — «2» с 47%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.