Traders are pricing a 96.4% implied probability on the CDC's cumulative flu hospitalization rate reaching 80–90 per 100,000 population for week 11 (late February 2026), driven by historical FluView data showing this range as the median outcome across two decades of seasons, including moderate years like 2015–16 (82 total) and peaks near week 11 in H3N2-dominant campaigns. Recent mild 2023–24 activity (under 20 by early March) reflects low virus circulation and strong vaccine match, but consensus anticipates reversion to norm amid cyclical severity patterns and potential drift in strain immunogenicity. Upside risks include novel antigenic variants pushing toward 100+, while downside challenges like superior vaccine uptake or hybrid immunity from prior COVID/flu exposures could cap below 70, pending fall 2025 strain surveillance updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
80–90 96.4%
70–80 1.7%
90–100 1.0%
60–70 <1%
$15,079 Объем
$15,079 Объем
<60
<1%
60–70
1%
70–80
2%
80–90
96%
90–100
1%
100+
1%
80–90 96.4%
70–80 1.7%
90–100 1.0%
60–70 <1%
$15,079 Объем
$15,079 Объем
<60
<1%
60–70
1%
70–80
2%
80–90
96%
90–100
1%
100+
1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing a 96.4% implied probability on the CDC's cumulative flu hospitalization rate reaching 80–90 per 100,000 population for week 11 (late February 2026), driven by historical FluView data showing this range as the median outcome across two decades of seasons, including moderate years like 2015–16 (82 total) and peaks near week 11 in H3N2-dominant campaigns. Recent mild 2023–24 activity (under 20 by early March) reflects low virus circulation and strong vaccine match, but consensus anticipates reversion to norm amid cyclical severity patterns and potential drift in strain immunogenicity. Upside risks include novel antigenic variants pushing toward 100+, while downside challenges like superior vaccine uptake or hybrid immunity from prior COVID/flu exposures could cap below 70, pending fall 2025 strain surveillance updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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