Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a postwar record supermajority in the February 2026 general election after dissolving the lower house in January, leaving the ruling coalition with little incentive for another early contest before year-end. Opposition fragmentation, including the recent breakup of the Centrist Reform Alliance, has further reduced pressure for a snap vote, while cabinet reshuffles and legislative priorities such as security policy and economic measures occupy the current Diet session. Traders assign only a 3.6 percent chance of dissolution in 2026 because the four-year term runs into 2030 and historical precedent favors longer intervals after decisive victories. Late-year developments that could still shift odds include a sharp decline in approval ratings, major scandal, or unexpected need for a fresh mandate on constitutional or fiscal issues.