Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a postwar record supermajority in the February 2026 general election after dissolving the lower house in January, leaving the ruling coalition with little incentive for another early contest before year-end. Opposition fragmentation, including the recent breakup of the Centrist Reform Alliance, has further reduced pressure for a snap vote, while cabinet reshuffles and legislative priorities such as security policy and economic measures occupy the current Diet session. Traders assign only a 3.6 percent chance of dissolution in 2026 because the four-year term runs into 2030 and historical precedent favors longer intervals after decisive victories. Late-year developments that could still shift odds include a sharp decline in approval ratings, major scandal, or unexpected need for a fresh mandate on constitutional or fiscal issues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Japan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Japan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a postwar record supermajority in the February 2026 general election after dissolving the lower house in January, leaving the ruling coalition with little incentive for another early contest before year-end. Opposition fragmentation, including the recent breakup of the Centrist Reform Alliance, has further reduced pressure for a snap vote, while cabinet reshuffles and legislative priorities such as security policy and economic measures occupy the current Diet session. Traders assign only a 3.6 percent chance of dissolution in 2026 because the four-year term runs into 2030 and historical precedent favors longer intervals after decisive victories. Late-year developments that could still shift odds include a sharp decline in approval ratings, major scandal, or unexpected need for a fresh mandate on constitutional or fiscal issues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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