Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.1% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be formally abolished before December 31, 2026, driven by the central bank's deep institutional entrenchment under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act and lack of meaningful legislative momentum. Recent developments, including President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair following Powell's May 15 term expiration—while Powell remains a board governor—and ongoing focus on monetary policy alignment rather than dissolution, underscore reformist pressures over elimination. Bills like H.R.1846 proposing abolition have introduced but garnered no bipartisan traction amid economic stability concerns. Tail risks include a severe crisis prompting radical congressional action or executive overreach challenging Fed independence, though proximity to resolution heightens barriers to such upheaval.