Recent June CPI data showed a sharper-than-expected -0.4% monthly headline decline (YoY 3.5%), driven primarily by a 5.7% energy drop that more than offset modest gains in shelter and food, while core CPI held flat. As the July reading approaches its August 12 release, trader positioning favoring ≥0.1% monthly (64% implied probability) versus 0.0% (32%) reflects expectations of a partial rebound in energy prices alongside persistent shelter costs and wage pressures that typically support positive monthly prints. Broader context includes tariff pass-through effects on goods and a labor market still providing a floor under services inflation, consistent with analyst views of sticky core trends reasserting after June’s energy-driven anomaly. Market-implied odds embed this path-dependent dynamic ahead of the next FOMC and upcoming data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено≥0,1% 65%
0,0% 32%
-0,1% 3.5%
≤-0,7% 1.0%
$117,122 Объем
$117,122 Объем
≤-0,7%
1%
-0,6%
<1%
-0,5%
<1%
-0,4%
<1%
-0,3%
<1%
-0,2%
<1%
-0,1%
4%
0,0%
32%
≥0,1%
65%
≥0,1% 65%
0,0% 32%
-0,1% 3.5%
≤-0,7% 1.0%
$117,122 Объем
$117,122 Объем
≤-0,7%
1%
-0,6%
<1%
-0,5%
<1%
-0,4%
<1%
-0,3%
<1%
-0,2%
<1%
-0,1%
4%
0,0%
32%
≥0,1%
65%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data showed a sharper-than-expected -0.4% monthly headline decline (YoY 3.5%), driven primarily by a 5.7% energy drop that more than offset modest gains in shelter and food, while core CPI held flat. As the July reading approaches its August 12 release, trader positioning favoring ≥0.1% monthly (64% implied probability) versus 0.0% (32%) reflects expectations of a partial rebound in energy prices alongside persistent shelter costs and wage pressures that typically support positive monthly prints. Broader context includes tariff pass-through effects on goods and a labor market still providing a floor under services inflation, consistent with analyst views of sticky core trends reasserting after June’s energy-driven anomaly. Market-implied odds embed this path-dependent dynamic ahead of the next FOMC and upcoming data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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