Recent June CPI data, featuring a larger-than-expected 0.4% month-over-month decline driven by energy prices, has shaped expectations for a modest rebound in July. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently point to headline MoM readings near 0.09–0.21%, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 67% implied probability on ≥0.1%. Core measures appear more stable, supporting the 24.5% odds on flat prints while discounting deeper declines. The August 12 BLS release remains the key catalyst, with any deviation in energy or shelter components likely to shift probabilities ahead of the FOMC meeting. These market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning rather than forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено≥0,1% 67%
0,0% 25%
-0,1% 5.4%
≤-0,7% <1%
$143,797 Объем
$143,797 Объем
≤-0,7%
1%
-0,6%
<1%
-0,5%
<1%
-0,4%
<1%
-0,3%
<1%
-0,2%
<1%
-0,1%
5%
0,0%
25%
≥0,1%
67%
≥0,1% 67%
0,0% 25%
-0,1% 5.4%
≤-0,7% <1%
$143,797 Объем
$143,797 Объем
≤-0,7%
1%
-0,6%
<1%
-0,5%
<1%
-0,4%
<1%
-0,3%
<1%
-0,2%
<1%
-0,1%
5%
0,0%
25%
≥0,1%
67%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data, featuring a larger-than-expected 0.4% month-over-month decline driven by energy prices, has shaped expectations for a modest rebound in July. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently point to headline MoM readings near 0.09–0.21%, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 67% implied probability on ≥0.1%. Core measures appear more stable, supporting the 24.5% odds on flat prints while discounting deeper declines. The August 12 BLS release remains the key catalyst, with any deviation in energy or shelter components likely to shift probabilities ahead of the FOMC meeting. These market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning rather than forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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