Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to coordinate efforts toward self-determination and regime change amid protests and external military pressure, yet their public statements and planning emphasize administrative control in Kurdish-majority areas during any transition rather than an immediate formal declaration of sovereignty. Iranian forces have conducted cross-border strikes on opposition bases in Iraq, while neighboring states and broader regional dynamics continue to constrain separatist moves. Traders assign only about 2 percent probability to a "Yes" outcome by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because no major party has asserted governing authority over territory or issued such a declaration, consistent with historical patterns where Kurdish aspirations in Iran have centered on autonomy within existing borders. A sudden power vacuum from intensified conflict or unexpected coalition escalation could still shift conditions before the deadline.