Iranian central authority maintains firm control over Kurdish-populated regions through security operations and cross-border measures, while recent opposition coordination has centered on regime change and post-transition self-administration rather than an immediate independence declaration. A February 2026 coalition of Iranian Kurdish groups outlined plans for democratic governance in Kurdish areas contingent on broader regime collapse, yet no such declaration has materialized amid ongoing protests, internal divisions, and explicit opposition from neighboring states including Turkey. Trader consensus at 97.5% reflects these structural barriers, including limited international backing and risks of escalation. Shifts could still occur through prolonged conflict creating a sustained power vacuum or coordinated external support enabling de facto territorial control.