Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight variable overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies on September 5–6, following a shift to southerly flow, as the key driver behind trader consensus favoring lower outcomes. With historical September 6 minima averaging 11.7 °C and records dipping to 5 °C, current guidance shows spread around 11–15 °C depending on cloud cover, dew point depression, and boundary-layer mixing. Implied probabilities cluster near 11–12 °C bins while assigning notable weight to 8 °C or below, reflecting model sensitivity to exact timing of any clearing and potential cooler maritime air advection. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum at Schiphol; fresh model runs and surface observations will refine this uncertainty ahead of the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Амстердаме 6 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Амстердаме 6 сентября?
8°C или ниже 69%
13°C 49%
14°C 49%
12°C 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
8°C или ниже
69%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
49%
14°C
49%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
8%
18°C или выше
1%
8°C или ниже 69%
13°C 49%
14°C 49%
12°C 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
8°C или ниже
$0 Объем
69%
9°C
$0 Объем
19%
10°C
$0 Объем
19%
11°C
$0 Объем
26%
12°C
$0 Объем
26%
13°C
$0 Объем
49%
14°C
$0 Объем
49%
15°C
$0 Объем
22%
16°C
$0 Объем
22%
17°C
$0 Объем
8%
18°C или выше
$0 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight variable overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies on September 5–6, following a shift to southerly flow, as the key driver behind trader consensus favoring lower outcomes. With historical September 6 minima averaging 11.7 °C and records dipping to 5 °C, current guidance shows spread around 11–15 °C depending on cloud cover, dew point depression, and boundary-layer mixing. Implied probabilities cluster near 11–12 °C bins while assigning notable weight to 8 °C or below, reflecting model sensitivity to exact timing of any clearing and potential cooler maritime air advection. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum at Schiphol; fresh model runs and surface observations will refine this uncertainty ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight variable overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies on September 5–6, following a shift to southerly flow, as the key driver behind trader consensus favoring lower outcomes. With historical September 6 minima averaging 11.7 °C and records dipping to 5 °C, current guidance shows spread around 11–15 °C depending on cloud cover, dew point depression, and boundary-layer mixing. Implied probabilities cluster near 11–12 °C bins while assigning notable weight to 8 °C or below, reflecting model sensitivity to exact timing of any clearing and potential cooler maritime air advection. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum at Schiphol; fresh model runs and surface observations will refine this uncertainty ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight variable overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies on September 5–6, following a shift to southerly flow, as the key driver behind trader consensus favoring lower outcomes. With historical September 6 minima averaging 11.7 °C and records dipping to 5 °C, current guidance shows spread around 11–15 °C depending on cloud cover, dew point depression, and boundary-layer mixing. Implied probabilities cluster near 11–12 °C bins while assigning notable weight to 8 °C or below, reflecting model sensitivity to exact timing of any clearing and potential cooler maritime air advection. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum at Schiphol; fresh model runs and surface observations will refine this uncertainty ahead of the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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