Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures for Wellington on September 4, with peaks most likely between 15–18°C amid northwesterly winds of 25–35 km/h and an 70–80% chance of showers. These conditions limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and enhanced mixing, keeping values close to the long-term September average of roughly 13–14°C while allowing brief warmer spells if breaks in cloud cover occur. The near-even market-implied odds between 17°C and 18°C reflect this genuine forecast spread and sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction or timing of precipitation, with official MetService observations determining the exact high. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 4 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 4 сентября?
18°C 43%
17°C 40%
16°C 10%
19°C 8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 сент. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
10%
17°C
40%
18°C
43%
19°C
8%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C или выше
<1%
18°C 43%
17°C 40%
16°C 10%
19°C 8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 сент. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
$114 Объем
<1%
13°C
$345 Объем
<1%
14°C
$219 Объем
1%
15°C
$311 Объем
3%
16°C
$143 Объем
10%
17°C
$143 Объем
40%
18°C
$710 Объем
43%
19°C
$387 Объем
8%
20°C
$57 Объем
2%
21°C
$0 Объем
1%
22°C или выше
$299 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures for Wellington on September 4, with peaks most likely between 15–18°C amid northwesterly winds of 25–35 km/h and an 70–80% chance of showers. These conditions limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and enhanced mixing, keeping values close to the long-term September average of roughly 13–14°C while allowing brief warmer spells if breaks in cloud cover occur. The near-even market-implied odds between 17°C and 18°C reflect this genuine forecast spread and sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction or timing of precipitation, with official MetService observations determining the exact high. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$2,728Дата окончания
4 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures for Wellington on September 4, with peaks most likely between 15–18°C amid northwesterly winds of 25–35 km/h and an 70–80% chance of showers. These conditions limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and enhanced mixing, keeping values close to the long-term September average of roughly 13–14°C while allowing brief warmer spells if breaks in cloud cover occur. The near-even market-implied odds between 17°C and 18°C reflect this genuine forecast spread and sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction or timing of precipitation, with official MetService observations determining the exact high. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,728Дата окончания
4 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures for Wellington on September 4, with peaks most likely between 15–18°C amid northwesterly winds of 25–35 km/h and an 70–80% chance of showers. These conditions limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and enhanced mixing, keeping values close to the long-term September average of roughly 13–14°C while allowing brief warmer spells if breaks in cloud cover occur. The near-even market-implied odds between 17°C and 18°C reflect this genuine forecast spread and sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction or timing of precipitation, with official MetService observations determining the exact high. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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