Recent official forecasts from MetService, NOAA analogs, and regional models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on September 3 driven by persistent northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching front, supporting minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C at the primary observation site. This aligns with climatological norms for early spring, where radiative cooling is limited under cloudy, windy conditions that prevent sharp drops below seasonal baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 46.5% implied probability on 8 °C or below likely incorporates residual model spread and historical variability in frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13 °C capture the current consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations expected overnight will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 3 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 3 сентября?
8°C или ниже 50%
10°C 50%
11°C 27%
12°C 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
8°C или ниже
50%
9°C
3%
10°C
50%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C или выше
<1%
8°C или ниже 50%
10°C 50%
11°C 27%
12°C 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
8°C или ниже
$5 Объем
50%
9°C
$5 Объем
3%
10°C
$5 Объем
50%
11°C
$0 Объем
27%
12°C
$0 Объем
27%
13°C
$0 Объем
27%
14°C
$60 Объем
26%
15°C
$25 Объем
<1%
16°C
$135 Объем
<1%
17°C
$140 Объем
<1%
18°C или выше
$140 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService, NOAA analogs, and regional models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on September 3 driven by persistent northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching front, supporting minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C at the primary observation site. This aligns with climatological norms for early spring, where radiative cooling is limited under cloudy, windy conditions that prevent sharp drops below seasonal baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 46.5% implied probability on 8 °C or below likely incorporates residual model spread and historical variability in frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13 °C capture the current consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations expected overnight will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$515Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService, NOAA analogs, and regional models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on September 3 driven by persistent northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching front, supporting minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C at the primary observation site. This aligns with climatological norms for early spring, where radiative cooling is limited under cloudy, windy conditions that prevent sharp drops below seasonal baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 46.5% implied probability on 8 °C or below likely incorporates residual model spread and historical variability in frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13 °C capture the current consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations expected overnight will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$515Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService, NOAA analogs, and regional models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on September 3 driven by persistent northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching front, supporting minimum temperatures near 12–13 °C at the primary observation site. This aligns with climatological norms for early spring, where radiative cooling is limited under cloudy, windy conditions that prevent sharp drops below seasonal baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 46.5% implied probability on 8 °C or below likely incorporates residual model spread and historical variability in frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13 °C capture the current consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations expected overnight will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы