Recent forecasts from multiple models show peak temperatures in Chengdu on September 4 likely reaching 32–34°C under the lingering influence of the subtropical high, with partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting excessive heating while scattered mountain showers pose minimal urban impact. Key variables include afternoon solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the timing of any cloud build-up or moisture advection from the west, which could trim highs by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds cluster around 33–35°C because traders weigh the current stable high-pressure regime against typical model spread and the approach of cooler autumn rain patterns expected later in the week. New model runs and official CMA guidance will refine these thresholds before resolution.