Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a rebound to upper-90s readings on September 4 after cooler, stormier conditions on the 3rd, with south-southwest flow, mostly sunny skies, and minimal cloud cover supporting strong daytime heating. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 94–97 °F, where the 94–95 °F bin leads at 33.5 % and 96–97 °F follows at 24.5 %. Southerly advection of warm, humid air from the Gulf, combined with a building ridge and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, favors highs near or slightly above the 93 °F climatological normal while limiting extreme outliers. Minor differences in forecast cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the spread among adjacent bins.