Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Chengdu on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress overnight radiative cooling in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where daytime highs reach 33–34°C but nighttime lows rarely drop below 24°C without clear skies. The near-even market odds around 25°C versus 26°C reflect minor model differences in precipitation timing and wind, while the balanced probabilities for 30°C+ or 20°C or below highlight lingering uncertainty in exactly how much cooling occurs before dawn. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.