Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the region with clear skies and light northeasterly winds for September 6, supporting overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 29–32°C. This setup typically yields minimum temperatures of 20–22°C in Istanbul, moderated by the adjacent Sea of Marmara, aligning with the clustered 25–26% market prices on the 18–22°C outcomes. The near-even odds on 13°C-or-below versus 23°C-or-higher reflect model ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and potential subtle shifts in wind or humidity, though current consensus favors the middle range given the absence of frontal systems or increased cloud cover. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of the resolution window.