Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 17°C for London on August 11 under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. The primary driver is the balance between radiational cooling overnight and the persistence of a warm, dry airmass that has produced daytime highs near 26–31°C in recent days. Minor model differences in forecast dew points, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-night cloud intrusions create the narrow spread, with historical August minima around 14–15°C providing context for the low probability assigned to outcomes below 15°C. Updated model runs and official briefing releases over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Лондоне 11 августа?
Самая низкая температура в Лондоне 11 августа?
17°C 43%
16°C 38%
15°C 12%
18°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
11 авг. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
12%
16°C
38%
17°C
43%
18°C
12%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
<1%
22°C или выше
<1%
17°C 43%
16°C 38%
15°C 12%
18°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
11 авг. 2026 г.
12°C или ниже
$36 Объем
1%
13°C
$33 Объем
1%
14°C
$33 Объем
2%
15°C
$56 Объем
12%
16°C
$1,401 Объем
38%
17°C
$1,437 Объем
43%
18°C
$84 Объем
12%
19°C
$33 Объем
2%
20°C
$33 Объем
2%
21°C
$56 Объем
<1%
22°C или выше
$71 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 17°C for London on August 11 under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. The primary driver is the balance between radiational cooling overnight and the persistence of a warm, dry airmass that has produced daytime highs near 26–31°C in recent days. Minor model differences in forecast dew points, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-night cloud intrusions create the narrow spread, with historical August minima around 14–15°C providing context for the low probability assigned to outcomes below 15°C. Updated model runs and official briefing releases over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$3,273Дата окончания
11 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 17°C for London on August 11 under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. The primary driver is the balance between radiational cooling overnight and the persistence of a warm, dry airmass that has produced daytime highs near 26–31°C in recent days. Minor model differences in forecast dew points, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-night cloud intrusions create the narrow spread, with historical August minima around 14–15°C providing context for the low probability assigned to outcomes below 15°C. Updated model runs and official briefing releases over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$3,273Дата окончания
11 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 17°C for London on August 11 under mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. The primary driver is the balance between radiational cooling overnight and the persistence of a warm, dry airmass that has produced daytime highs near 26–31°C in recent days. Minor model differences in forecast dew points, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-night cloud intrusions create the narrow spread, with historical August minima around 14–15°C providing context for the low probability assigned to outcomes below 15°C. Updated model runs and official briefing releases over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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