Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates overnight lows in Madrid around 15–17°C on September 22 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and promote radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market-implied 50% probability on 14°C or below as the leading outcome, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-autumn variability near the 1991–2020 average low of 14.5°C, while the clustered probabilities on 15°C and 16°C capture remaining uncertainty in exact minimum readings from official stations. Clear conditions favor modest cooling compared to recent warmer nights, though model spread and potential for slight wind increases could push the low higher. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these ranges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 22 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 22 сентября?
14°C или ниже 100%
15°C 40%
16°C 39%
17°C 19%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
22 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
100%
15°C
40%
16°C
39%
17°C
19%
18°C
11%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C или выше
4%
14°C или ниже 100%
15°C 40%
16°C 39%
17°C 19%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
22 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$0 Объем
100%
15°C
$0 Объем
40%
16°C
$0 Объем
39%
17°C
$0 Объем
19%
18°C
$0 Объем
11%
19°C
$0 Объем
6%
20°C
$0 Объем
4%
21°C
$0 Объем
4%
22°C
$0 Объем
4%
23°C
$0 Объем
4%
24°C или выше
$0 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates overnight lows in Madrid around 15–17°C on September 22 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and promote radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market-implied 50% probability on 14°C or below as the leading outcome, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-autumn variability near the 1991–2020 average low of 14.5°C, while the clustered probabilities on 15°C and 16°C capture remaining uncertainty in exact minimum readings from official stations. Clear conditions favor modest cooling compared to recent warmer nights, though model spread and potential for slight wind increases could push the low higher. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
22 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates overnight lows in Madrid around 15–17°C on September 22 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and promote radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market-implied 50% probability on 14°C or below as the leading outcome, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-autumn variability near the 1991–2020 average low of 14.5°C, while the clustered probabilities on 15°C and 16°C capture remaining uncertainty in exact minimum readings from official stations. Clear conditions favor modest cooling compared to recent warmer nights, though model spread and potential for slight wind increases could push the low higher. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
22 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates overnight lows in Madrid around 15–17°C on September 22 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and promote radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market-implied 50% probability on 14°C or below as the leading outcome, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-autumn variability near the 1991–2020 average low of 14.5°C, while the clustered probabilities on 15°C and 16°C capture remaining uncertainty in exact minimum readings from official stations. Clear conditions favor modest cooling compared to recent warmer nights, though model spread and potential for slight wind increases could push the low higher. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these ranges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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