Forecast models for Shenzhen indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C on September 5, driven by lingering monsoon moisture, light southerly winds, and scattered convective showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent patterns of afternoon thunderstorms transitioning to partly cloudy nights have produced overnight lows in this range, consistent with September climatology of 23–25°C averages. Differentiation among closely matched market outcomes hinges on precise overnight cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any shift in steering flow from the South China Sea, as even modest increases in humidity or wind could suppress the low by 1–2°C while clearer breaks would allow it to approach 22–23°C. Updated numerical guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.