**Persistent cloud cover and showers are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Taipei, keeping the lowest temperature on September 5 centered around 25–26°C according to the latest model consensus.** High humidity levels near 90% and light winds further suppress temperature drops after sunset, while scattered rain from a lingering weather pattern adds variability in the precise minimum. Official forecasts from sources including the Central Weather Administration and global models show overnight lows clustered in the mid-20s Celsius, with some runs dipping toward 24°C under clearer breaks and others holding near 26°C amid continuous cloud. This scientific uncertainty—driven by the timing and intensity of precipitation—explains why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 25°C and 26°C, with adjacent outcomes reflecting the narrow but meaningful range in expected conditions. Updated model runs and local observations in the coming hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.