Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 16 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 16 сентября?
7°C или ниже 95%
9°C 90%
10°C 90%
12°C 51%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
7°C или ниже
95%
8°C
44%
9°C
90%
10°C
90%
11°C
50%
12°C
51%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C или выше
<1%
7°C или ниже 95%
9°C 90%
10°C 90%
12°C 51%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
7°C или ниже
$0 Объем
95%
8°C
$32 Объем
44%
9°C
$0 Объем
90%
10°C
$58 Объем
90%
11°C
$0 Объем
50%
12°C
$0 Объем
51%
13°C
$2,395 Объем
<1%
14°C
$0 Объем
<1%
15°C
$16 Объем
<1%
16°C
$76 Объем
<1%
17°C или выше
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$2,577Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,577Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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