The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results such as the incumbent’s 97 percent share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces a primary challenge from Jason Poulos on September 1, while Republican Thomas Stalcup and independents contest the other side; however, race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general-election path apparent. Recent developments remain limited to routine primary filings and candidate dropouts, with no shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics that would alter the established margin. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical precedent and structural factors make such outcomes remote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$41,988 Объем
$41,988 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
3%
$41,988 Объем
$41,988 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$21,713 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$20,275 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results such as the incumbent’s 97 percent share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces a primary challenge from Jason Poulos on September 1, while Republican Thomas Stalcup and independents contest the other side; however, race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general-election path apparent. Recent developments remain limited to routine primary filings and candidate dropouts, with no shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics that would alter the established margin. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical precedent and structural factors make such outcomes remote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$41,988Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results such as the incumbent’s 97 percent share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces a primary challenge from Jason Poulos on September 1, while Republican Thomas Stalcup and independents contest the other side; however, race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general-election path apparent. Recent developments remain limited to routine primary filings and candidate dropouts, with no shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics that would alter the established margin. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical precedent and structural factors make such outcomes remote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$41,988Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results such as the incumbent’s 97 percent share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces a primary challenge from Jason Poulos on September 1, while Republican Thomas Stalcup and independents contest the other side; however, race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general-election path apparent. Recent developments remain limited to routine primary filings and candidate dropouts, with no shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics that would alter the established margin. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical precedent and structural factors make such outcomes remote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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