Recent April CPI data, which printed at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and above consensus—has elevated market-implied odds for May annual inflation settling near 4.3% or higher. Elevated energy prices, tariff pass-through effects on goods, and early passthrough from shelter and airfare costs are contributing to the momentum, with analysts noting potential for headline readings above 4%. Trader consensus reflected in these closely contested probabilities around 4.2–4.4% incorporates the April surprise while acknowledging uncertainty from seasonal adjustments and moderating core trends. The May CPI release scheduled for June 10 remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4.3% 38%
≥4,4% 36%
4.2% 26%
4.1% 2.1%
$111,685 Объем
$111,685 Объем
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
2%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
38%
≥4,4%
36%
4.3% 38%
≥4,4% 36%
4.2% 26%
4.1% 2.1%
$111,685 Объем
$111,685 Объем
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
2%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
38%
≥4,4%
36%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data, which printed at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and above consensus—has elevated market-implied odds for May annual inflation settling near 4.3% or higher. Elevated energy prices, tariff pass-through effects on goods, and early passthrough from shelter and airfare costs are contributing to the momentum, with analysts noting potential for headline readings above 4%. Trader consensus reflected in these closely contested probabilities around 4.2–4.4% incorporates the April surprise while acknowledging uncertainty from seasonal adjustments and moderating core trends. The May CPI release scheduled for June 10 remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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