**Mitch McConnell's prolonged recovery from a mid-June 2026 fall and subsequent hospitalization continues to shape trader expectations that he will not cast a Senate vote by September 30.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term would be his last, remains focused on intensive physical therapy at home following his August 6 discharge from rehabilitation. Official statements have not indicated clearance to resume Senate duties, and he has not appeared publicly or participated in votes since the incident. A looming September 30 government funding deadline adds procedural context, yet McConnell's absence has already affected committee work and events such as the Fancy Farm picnic. Traders appear to weigh these health-related barriers more heavily than any near-term return signals, producing the current 71.5% implied probability for "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
20% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
20% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Mitch McConnell's prolonged recovery from a mid-June 2026 fall and subsequent hospitalization continues to shape trader expectations that he will not cast a Senate vote by September 30.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term would be his last, remains focused on intensive physical therapy at home following his August 6 discharge from rehabilitation. Official statements have not indicated clearance to resume Senate duties, and he has not appeared publicly or participated in votes since the incident.
A looming September 30 government funding deadline adds procedural context, yet McConnell's absence has already affected committee work and events such as the Fancy Farm picnic. Traders appear to weigh these health-related barriers more heavily than any near-term return signals, producing the current 71.5% implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Объем
$194Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 18, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Mitch McConnell's prolonged recovery from a mid-June 2026 fall and subsequent hospitalization continues to shape trader expectations that he will not cast a Senate vote by September 30.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term would be his last, remains focused on intensive physical therapy at home following his August 6 discharge from rehabilitation. Official statements have not indicated clearance to resume Senate duties, and he has not appeared publicly or participated in votes since the incident.
A looming September 30 government funding deadline adds procedural context, yet McConnell's absence has already affected committee work and events such as the Fancy Farm picnic. Traders appear to weigh these health-related barriers more heavily than any near-term return signals, producing the current 71.5% implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$194Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 18, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mitch McConnell's prolonged recovery from a mid-June 2026 fall and subsequent hospitalization continues to shape trader expectations that he will not cast a Senate vote by September 30.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term would be his last, remains focused on intensive physical therapy at home following his August 6 discharge from rehabilitation. Official statements have not indicated clearance to resume Senate duties, and he has not appeared publicly or participated in votes since the incident. A looming September 30 government funding deadline adds procedural context, yet McConnell's absence has already affected committee work and events such as the Fancy Farm picnic. Traders appear to weigh these health-related barriers more heavily than any near-term return signals, producing the current 71.5% implied probability for "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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