Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMO-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MO-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$33,527 Объем
$33,527 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
94%
Демократическая партия
7%
$33,527 Объем
$33,527 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$19,377 Объем
94%
Демократическая партия
$14,150 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$33,527Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$33,527Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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