Recent equity market stability, with major indices trading near all-time highs amid subdued volatility measures like the VIX, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027. Traders price in resilient corporate earnings, steady GDP growth, and contained inflation data that have limited downside moves well below the 7% S&P 500 threshold triggering the first level. Historical base rates show such halts remain infrequent outside acute crises, and absent immediate catalysts like aggressive Fed rate shifts or geopolitical shocks, the consensus reflects low near-term tail-risk probability through year-end 2026. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and employment will continue shaping these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
11% вероятность
$114,293 Объем
$114,293 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$114,293 Объем
$114,293 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent equity market stability, with major indices trading near all-time highs amid subdued volatility measures like the VIX, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027. Traders price in resilient corporate earnings, steady GDP growth, and contained inflation data that have limited downside moves well below the 7% S&P 500 threshold triggering the first level. Historical base rates show such halts remain infrequent outside acute crises, and absent immediate catalysts like aggressive Fed rate shifts or geopolitical shocks, the consensus reflects low near-term tail-risk probability through year-end 2026. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and employment will continue shaping these probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Объем
$114,293Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent equity market stability, with major indices trading near all-time highs amid subdued volatility measures like the VIX, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027. Traders price in resilient corporate earnings, steady GDP growth, and contained inflation data that have limited downside moves well below the 7% S&P 500 threshold triggering the first level. Historical base rates show such halts remain infrequent outside acute crises, and absent immediate catalysts like aggressive Fed rate shifts or geopolitical shocks, the consensus reflects low near-term tail-risk probability through year-end 2026. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and employment will continue shaping these probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Recent equity market stability, with major indices trading near all-time highs amid subdued volatility measures like the VIX, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027. Traders price in resilient corporate earnings, steady GDP growth, and contained inflation data that have limited downside moves well below the 7% S&P 500 threshold triggering the first level. Historical base rates show such halts remain infrequent outside acute crises, and absent immediate catalysts like aggressive Fed rate shifts or geopolitical shocks, the consensus reflects low near-term tail-risk probability through year-end 2026. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and employment will continue shaping these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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