Supreme Court oral arguments in Trump v. Barbara, held April 1, have elevated scrutiny of President Trump's January 2025 Executive Order 14160, which directs agencies to deny birthright citizenship recognition to certain U.S.-born children of undocumented or temporary-visa mothers unless the father is a citizen or lawful permanent resident. Lower federal courts issued nationwide injunctions, deeming the order likely unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause and 8 U.S.C. §1401(a). Traders' 78.5% implied probability for SCOTUS striking it down reflects consensus on century-old precedent from United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898), affirming jus soli citizenship regardless of parental status, alongside the order's conflict with statutory text, history, and executive practice. A decision is expected by late June, amid the President's historic attendance at arguments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
$15,307 Объем
НОВОЕ
$15,307 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
$15,307 Объем
НОВОЕ
$15,307 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Supreme Court oral arguments in Trump v. Barbara, held April 1, have elevated scrutiny of President Trump's January 2025 Executive Order 14160, which directs agencies to deny birthright citizenship recognition to certain U.S.-born children of undocumented or temporary-visa mothers unless the father is a citizen or lawful permanent resident. Lower federal courts issued nationwide injunctions, deeming the order likely unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause and 8 U.S.C. §1401(a). Traders' 78.5% implied probability for SCOTUS striking it down reflects consensus on century-old precedent from United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898), affirming jus soli citizenship regardless of parental status, alongside the order's conflict with statutory text, history, and executive practice. A decision is expected by late June, amid the President's historic attendance at arguments.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Объем
$15,307Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Supreme Court oral arguments in Trump v. Barbara, held April 1, have elevated scrutiny of President Trump's January 2025 Executive Order 14160, which directs agencies to deny birthright citizenship recognition to certain U.S.-born children of undocumented or temporary-visa mothers unless the father is a citizen or lawful permanent resident. Lower federal courts issued nationwide injunctions, deeming the order likely unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause and 8 U.S.C. §1401(a). Traders' 78.5% implied probability for SCOTUS striking it down reflects consensus on century-old precedent from United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898), affirming jus soli citizenship regardless of parental status, alongside the order's conflict with statutory text, history, and executive practice. A decision is expected by late June, amid the President's historic attendance at arguments.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$15,307Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supreme Court oral arguments in Trump v. Barbara, held April 1, have elevated scrutiny of President Trump's January 2025 Executive Order 14160, which directs agencies to deny birthright citizenship recognition to certain U.S.-born children of undocumented or temporary-visa mothers unless the father is a citizen or lawful permanent resident. Lower federal courts issued nationwide injunctions, deeming the order likely unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause and 8 U.S.C. §1401(a). Traders' 78.5% implied probability for SCOTUS striking it down reflects consensus on century-old precedent from United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898), affirming jus soli citizenship regardless of parental status, alongside the order's conflict with statutory text, history, and executive practice. A decision is expected by late June, amid the President's historic attendance at arguments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы