Traders assign a 96.7% implied probability to “No” for Dario Amodei facing arrest by year-end because no public criminal investigations, charges, or credible reports of personal misconduct have emerged against the Anthropic CEO. His recent activities center on standard AI industry engagement, including policy advocacy for mandatory third-party testing of large language models and resistance to unrestricted military use of Claude, which produced corporate-level disputes rather than enforcement actions. Civil matters such as copyright litigation over AI training data have prompted depositions but remain far from criminal thresholds. While low-probability catalysts like sudden disclosure of undisclosed violations or escalation of prior federal tensions could theoretically intervene, current evidence and historical patterns for AI executives point to continuity in leadership without personal legal jeopardy.