Both OpenAI and Anthropic have published detailed updates this month on AI systems accelerating internal research and code generation, yet neither has claimed full recursive self-improvement where a model autonomously designs and trains its successor. Anthropic’s September report notes Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged code and handling end-to-end research tasks under supervision, while OpenAI described an “automated research intern” capable of multi-day tasks and introduced an internal RSI Index measuring progress toward automated model improvement. Executives at both labs continue to stress that aligned, fully autonomous loops remain out of reach and have publicly urged industry-wide pacing to manage safety risks. These measured disclosures, alongside stated 2028 targets for more advanced agents, shape trader views that a definitive announcement is unlikely in the near term absent major capability jumps or competitive pressure.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOpenAI или Anthropic объявляют о рекурсивном самосовершенствовании на...?
OpenAI или Anthropic объявляют о рекурсивном самосовершенствовании на...?
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября 2026 года
10%
31 декабря 2026 года
16%
$534 Объем
31 октября 2026 года
$272 Объем
10%
31 декабря 2026 года
$262 Объем
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have published detailed updates this month on AI systems accelerating internal research and code generation, yet neither has claimed full recursive self-improvement where a model autonomously designs and trains its successor. Anthropic’s September report notes Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged code and handling end-to-end research tasks under supervision, while OpenAI described an “automated research intern” capable of multi-day tasks and introduced an internal RSI Index measuring progress toward automated model improvement. Executives at both labs continue to stress that aligned, fully autonomous loops remain out of reach and have publicly urged industry-wide pacing to manage safety risks. These measured disclosures, alongside stated 2028 targets for more advanced agents, shape trader views that a definitive announcement is unlikely in the near term absent major capability jumps or competitive pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Объем
$534Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have published detailed updates this month on AI systems accelerating internal research and code generation, yet neither has claimed full recursive self-improvement where a model autonomously designs and trains its successor. Anthropic’s September report notes Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged code and handling end-to-end research tasks under supervision, while OpenAI described an “automated research intern” capable of multi-day tasks and introduced an internal RSI Index measuring progress toward automated model improvement. Executives at both labs continue to stress that aligned, fully autonomous loops remain out of reach and have publicly urged industry-wide pacing to manage safety risks. These measured disclosures, alongside stated 2028 targets for more advanced agents, shape trader views that a definitive announcement is unlikely in the near term absent major capability jumps or competitive pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$534Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Both OpenAI and Anthropic have published detailed updates this month on AI systems accelerating internal research and code generation, yet neither has claimed full recursive self-improvement where a model autonomously designs and trains its successor. Anthropic’s September report notes Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged code and handling end-to-end research tasks under supervision, while OpenAI described an “automated research intern” capable of multi-day tasks and introduced an internal RSI Index measuring progress toward automated model improvement. Executives at both labs continue to stress that aligned, fully autonomous loops remain out of reach and have publicly urged industry-wide pacing to manage safety risks. These measured disclosures, alongside stated 2028 targets for more advanced agents, shape trader views that a definitive announcement is unlikely in the near term absent major capability jumps or competitive pressure.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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