Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, with implied probabilities at 61.5% versus 35.5% for Bloc Québécois' Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, while other contenders trail far behind. This reflects recent Abacus Data polling showing Auguste leading 42-37% amid high advance voting turnout exceeding 20%, bolstering Liberal momentum in the swing riding vacated by MP Paul Guilbert's resignation. Key drivers include Quebec voters' preference for Liberal incumbency on affordability issues, national minority government dynamics favoring the party in power, and Sinclair-Desgagné's narrower appeal despite strong sovereigntist turnout; the November 25 vote remains fluid with potential for late shifts from undecideds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Татьяна Огюст 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 36%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
NEW
$17,635 Объем
NEW
$17,635 Объем
Apr 13, 2026
Татьяна Огюст
62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
36%
Maxime Beaudoin
<1%
Maria Cantore
<1%
Adrienne Charles
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Татьяна Огюст 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 36%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
NEW
$17,635 Объем
NEW
$17,635 Объем
Apr 13, 2026
Татьяна Огюст
$6,868 Объем
62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
$3,005 Объем
36%
Maxime Beaudoin
$2,000 Объем
<1%
Maria Cantore
$1,920 Объем
<1%
Adrienne Charles
$1,930 Объем
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
$1,911 Объем
<1%
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Объем
$17,635Дата окончания
Apr 13, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Объем
$17,635Дата окончания
Apr 13, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, with implied probabilities at 61.5% versus 35.5% for Bloc Québécois' Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, while other contenders trail far behind. This reflects recent Abacus Data polling showing Auguste leading 42-37% amid high advance voting turnout exceeding 20%, bolstering Liberal momentum in the swing riding vacated by MP Paul Guilbert's resignation. Key drivers include Quebec voters' preference for Liberal incumbency on affordability issues, national minority government dynamics favoring the party in power, and Sinclair-Desgagné's narrower appeal despite strong sovereigntist turnout; the November 25 vote remains fluid with potential for late shifts from undecideds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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