Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal majority government, secured in April 2026 through by-elections and floor crossings, controls the timing of the next federal election under the Canada Elections Act, with the fixed date set for October 2029. As of mid-June 2026, Carney’s administration has focused on domestic policy initiatives and international diplomacy rather than parliamentary dissolution, and no supply bill defeats, confidence votes, or opposition pressure have emerged to force an early writ. This stable majority and the brief remaining window to June 30 underpin traders’ near-certain consensus against a snap election. Remote scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unforeseen loss of parliamentary support or a sudden national crisis prompting dissolution, though neither appears imminent based on current legislative dynamics.