Canada's Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority in April 2026 through by-election victories and floor crossings, following the April 2025 general election. This outcome eliminated immediate risks of defeat on confidence matters or supply bills, removing the primary trigger for dissolution under the Canada Elections Act. With the fixed election date set for October 2029, no procedural deadlines or opposition pressure point toward an early writ drop before June 30. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because the current session faces no imminent votes of non-confidence and the government holds stable seat counts. Late developments such as a sudden parliamentary defeat, leadership change, or acute external crisis could theoretically prompt dissolution, though none appear probable in the narrow remaining window.