Canada's federal government 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, released in November 2025, sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while cutting new temporary resident targets by roughly half from prior peaks, including a 49% reduction in international student arrivals and 37% drop in temporary workers. Parliamentary Budget Officer analysis from February projects these measures will produce flat total population growth in 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents offset permanent inflows, following an actual 0.2% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 per Statistics Canada. Traders appear to weigh these policy-driven reductions in temporary migration volumes, which target a 5% non-permanent resident share by year-end, as the dominant factor tilting implied odds toward a net population decrease for the calendar year.