Recent polling aggregates and seat projection models, including 338Canada and The Writ, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney commanding mid-40s national support and 200-plus projected seats—well above the 172 needed for a majority—while Conservatives languish in the mid-30s with under 100 seats. This double-digit Liberal lead, solidified since their minority victory in the April 2025 federal election, stems from Conservative MP defections, positive reception to the fall budget, and regional strengths in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, as captured in Nanos, Abacus Data, and Leger surveys through mid-March. Absent a dramatic reversal like economic downturn or scandal, traders view a Conservative surge to overtake Liberal seat projections in 2026 as improbable, reflecting sustained momentum for the incumbent minority government.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling aggregates and seat projection models, including 338Canada and The Writ, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney commanding mid-40s national support and 200-plus projected seats—well above the 172 needed for a majority—while Conservatives languish in the mid-30s with under 100 seats. This double-digit Liberal lead, solidified since their minority victory in the April 2025 federal election, stems from Conservative MP defections, positive reception to the fall budget, and regional strengths in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, as captured in Nanos, Abacus Data, and Leger surveys through mid-March. Absent a dramatic reversal like economic downturn or scandal, traders view a Conservative surge to overtake Liberal seat projections in 2026 as improbable, reflecting sustained momentum for the incumbent minority government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Объем
$1,169Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling aggregates and seat projection models, including 338Canada and The Writ, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney commanding mid-40s national support and 200-plus projected seats—well above the 172 needed for a majority—while Conservatives languish in the mid-30s with under 100 seats. This double-digit Liberal lead, solidified since their minority victory in the April 2025 federal election, stems from Conservative MP defections, positive reception to the fall budget, and regional strengths in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, as captured in Nanos, Abacus Data, and Leger surveys through mid-March. Absent a dramatic reversal like economic downturn or scandal, traders view a Conservative surge to overtake Liberal seat projections in 2026 as improbable, reflecting sustained momentum for the incumbent minority government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Объем
$1,169Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling aggregates and seat projection models, including 338Canada and The Writ, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney commanding mid-40s national support and 200-plus projected seats—well above the 172 needed for a majority—while Conservatives languish in the mid-30s with under 100 seats. This double-digit Liberal lead, solidified since their minority victory in the April 2025 federal election, stems from Conservative MP defections, positive reception to the fall budget, and regional strengths in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, as captured in Nanos, Abacus Data, and Leger surveys through mid-March. Absent a dramatic reversal like economic downturn or scandal, traders view a Conservative surge to overtake Liberal seat projections in 2026 as improbable, reflecting sustained momentum for the incumbent minority government.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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