The United States formally declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, activating annual reviews through 2036 instead. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, labor provisions, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment benefits, with bilateral U.S.-Mexico negotiations advancing on these issues while Canada remains largely sidelined. Ongoing talks have produced incremental progress but no trilateral agreement on a full extension, and the agreement remains in force pending further developments. This procedural shift and U.S. demands for changes underpin trader consensus that a 16-year renewal will not occur in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
11% вероятность
$10,716 Объем
$10,716 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$10,716 Объем
$10,716 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States formally declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, activating annual reviews through 2036 instead. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, labor provisions, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment benefits, with bilateral U.S.-Mexico negotiations advancing on these issues while Canada remains largely sidelined. Ongoing talks have produced incremental progress but no trilateral agreement on a full extension, and the agreement remains in force pending further developments. This procedural shift and U.S. demands for changes underpin trader consensus that a 16-year renewal will not occur in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$10,716Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States formally declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, activating annual reviews through 2036 instead. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, labor provisions, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment benefits, with bilateral U.S.-Mexico negotiations advancing on these issues while Canada remains largely sidelined. Ongoing talks have produced incremental progress but no trilateral agreement on a full extension, and the agreement remains in force pending further developments. This procedural shift and U.S. demands for changes underpin trader consensus that a 16-year renewal will not occur in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$10,716Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The United States formally declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, activating annual reviews through 2036 instead. The Trump administration cited the need for revisions on automotive rules of origin, labor provisions, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment benefits, with bilateral U.S.-Mexico negotiations advancing on these issues while Canada remains largely sidelined. Ongoing talks have produced incremental progress but no trilateral agreement on a full extension, and the agreement remains in force pending further developments. This procedural shift and U.S. demands for changes underpin trader consensus that a 16-year renewal will not occur in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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