Trump's September 2026 proposal for a $5,000 per-adult dividend—tied to Republican control of Congress after the November midterms—faces steep structural barriers that explain the 92.5% "No" pricing. Delivering the roughly $1.2 trillion outlay would require new congressional appropriations for spending authority, yet tariff revenues projected at $125–200 billion annually fall far short of the cost. Past similar pledges, including a $2,000 tariff-linked payment, produced no action. The March 31, 2027 resolution date leaves limited time for legislation, implementation, and disbursement even if Republicans retain majorities, while deficit, inflation, and procedural concerns add further friction. Traders assign low odds to the full sequence occurring on schedule.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
Да
7% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category.
The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.Trump's September 2026 proposal for a $5,000 per-adult dividend—tied to Republican control of Congress after the November midterms—faces steep structural barriers that explain the 92.5% "No" pricing. Delivering the roughly $1.2 trillion outlay would require new congressional appropriations for spending authority, yet tariff revenues projected at $125–200 billion annually fall far short of the cost. Past similar pledges, including a $2,000 tariff-linked payment, produced no action. The March 31, 2027 resolution date leaves limited time for legislation, implementation, and disbursement even if Republicans retain majorities, while deficit, inflation, and procedural concerns add further friction. Traders assign low odds to the full sequence occurring on schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category.
The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.
Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category.
The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 12:32 PM ET
Объем
$7,963Дата окончания
1 апр. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category.
The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.Trump's September 2026 proposal for a $5,000 per-adult dividend—tied to Republican control of Congress after the November midterms—faces steep structural barriers that explain the 92.5% "No" pricing. Delivering the roughly $1.2 trillion outlay would require new congressional appropriations for spending authority, yet tariff revenues projected at $125–200 billion annually fall far short of the cost. Past similar pledges, including a $2,000 tariff-linked payment, produced no action. The March 31, 2027 resolution date leaves limited time for legislation, implementation, and disbursement even if Republicans retain majorities, while deficit, inflation, and procedural concerns add further friction. Traders assign low odds to the full sequence occurring on schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category.
The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.
Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category.
The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.
Объем
$7,963Дата окончания
1 апр. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trump's September 2026 proposal for a $5,000 per-adult dividend—tied to Republican control of Congress after the November midterms—faces steep structural barriers that explain the 92.5% "No" pricing. Delivering the roughly $1.2 trillion outlay would require new congressional appropriations for spending authority, yet tariff revenues projected at $125–200 billion annually fall far short of the cost. Past similar pledges, including a $2,000 tariff-linked payment, produced no action. The March 31, 2027 resolution date leaves limited time for legislation, implementation, and disbursement even if Republicans retain majorities, while deficit, inflation, and procedural concerns add further friction. Traders assign low odds to the full sequence occurring on schedule.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы