Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability, reflecting that President Trump's April 8 Truth Social post imposing 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran constitutes a broad policy threat rather than tariffs targeting a specific country, as required for market resolution. Polymarket criteria demand an official announcement naming particular nations—like potential suppliers Russia or China—for their military cooperation with Iran, such as arms transfers, with the linkage explicit or confirmed by credible reporting. Supreme Court limits on executive tariff authority add enforcement uncertainty, while ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and sanctions relief discussions signal de-escalation, reducing odds of targeted measures before the April 17 deadline. Traders eye upcoming Islamabad talks for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоТрамп объявит тарифы на вооружение Ирана до 17 апреля?
Трамп объявит тарифы на вооружение Ирана до 17 апреля?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 апр. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability, reflecting that President Trump's April 8 Truth Social post imposing 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran constitutes a broad policy threat rather than tariffs targeting a specific country, as required for market resolution. Polymarket criteria demand an official announcement naming particular nations—like potential suppliers Russia or China—for their military cooperation with Iran, such as arms transfers, with the linkage explicit or confirmed by credible reporting. Supreme Court limits on executive tariff authority add enforcement uncertainty, while ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and sanctions relief discussions signal de-escalation, reducing odds of targeted measures before the April 17 deadline. Traders eye upcoming Islamabad talks for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Объем
$4,580Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability, reflecting that President Trump's April 8 Truth Social post imposing 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran constitutes a broad policy threat rather than tariffs targeting a specific country, as required for market resolution. Polymarket criteria demand an official announcement naming particular nations—like potential suppliers Russia or China—for their military cooperation with Iran, such as arms transfers, with the linkage explicit or confirmed by credible reporting. Supreme Court limits on executive tariff authority add enforcement uncertainty, while ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and sanctions relief discussions signal de-escalation, reducing odds of targeted measures before the April 17 deadline. Traders eye upcoming Islamabad talks for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,646Дата окончания
17 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability, reflecting that President Trump's April 8 Truth Social post imposing 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran constitutes a broad policy threat rather than tariffs targeting a specific country, as required for market resolution. Polymarket criteria demand an official announcement naming particular nations—like potential suppliers Russia or China—for their military cooperation with Iran, such as arms transfers, with the linkage explicit or confirmed by credible reporting. Supreme Court limits on executive tariff authority add enforcement uncertainty, while ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and sanctions relief discussions signal de-escalation, reducing odds of targeted measures before the April 17 deadline. Traders eye upcoming Islamabad talks for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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