Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321–328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or secure broad amendments. Preparatory drafting work continues after President Erdoğan appointed a 10-member legal team in 2025, yet opposition parties including the CHP have declined participation and no cross-party agreement has emerged. Recent legislative focus has shifted toward judicial packages, alimony rules, and a PKK-related integration law rather than advancing a new charter to a popular vote. While early-election scenarios under Article 116 remain under discussion as an alternative path for term-limit adjustments, these developments have not produced the parliamentary majority or official announcement required for a 2026 referendum, sustaining trader expectations that none will be called before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено23% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
23% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321–328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or secure broad amendments. Preparatory drafting work continues after President Erdoğan appointed a 10-member legal team in 2025, yet opposition parties including the CHP have declined participation and no cross-party agreement has emerged. Recent legislative focus has shifted toward judicial packages, alimony rules, and a PKK-related integration law rather than advancing a new charter to a popular vote. While early-election scenarios under Article 116 remain under discussion as an alternative path for term-limit adjustments, these developments have not produced the parliamentary majority or official announcement required for a 2026 referendum, sustaining trader expectations that none will be called before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Объем
$6,957Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321–328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or secure broad amendments. Preparatory drafting work continues after President Erdoğan appointed a 10-member legal team in 2025, yet opposition parties including the CHP have declined participation and no cross-party agreement has emerged. Recent legislative focus has shifted toward judicial packages, alimony rules, and a PKK-related integration law rather than advancing a new charter to a popular vote. While early-election scenarios under Article 116 remain under discussion as an alternative path for term-limit adjustments, these developments have not produced the parliamentary majority or official announcement required for a 2026 referendum, sustaining trader expectations that none will be called before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,957Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321–328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or secure broad amendments. Preparatory drafting work continues after President Erdoğan appointed a 10-member legal team in 2025, yet opposition parties including the CHP have declined participation and no cross-party agreement has emerged. Recent legislative focus has shifted toward judicial packages, alimony rules, and a PKK-related integration law rather than advancing a new charter to a popular vote. While early-election scenarios under Article 116 remain under discussion as an alternative path for term-limit adjustments, these developments have not produced the parliamentary majority or official announcement required for a 2026 referendum, sustaining trader expectations that none will be called before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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