Utah's 4th congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in 2024 and reinforced by post-redistricting boundaries that place two former Republican incumbents in competition for the seat. Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the neighboring 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Democrat Jonny Larsen, who advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Republicans aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would shift the outlook. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current candidate profiles make such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUT-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
UT-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$15,043 Объем
$15,043 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
91%
Демократическая партия
9%
$15,043 Объем
$15,043 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$5,494 Объем
91%
Демократическая партия
$9,549 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in 2024 and reinforced by post-redistricting boundaries that place two former Republican incumbents in competition for the seat. Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the neighboring 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Democrat Jonny Larsen, who advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Republicans aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would shift the outlook. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current candidate profiles make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$15,043Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in 2024 and reinforced by post-redistricting boundaries that place two former Republican incumbents in competition for the seat. Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the neighboring 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Democrat Jonny Larsen, who advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Republicans aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would shift the outlook. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current candidate profiles make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$15,043Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in 2024 and reinforced by post-redistricting boundaries that place two former Republican incumbents in competition for the seat. Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the neighboring 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Democrat Jonny Larsen, who advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Republicans aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would shift the outlook. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic surge, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current candidate profiles make such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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