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Геополитика·Иран

Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?

Market icon
Геополитика·Иран

Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$464,214 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$464,214 Объем

Polymarket

НПЗ Рувайс

$39,648 Объем

25%

Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан

$46,277 Объем

22%

Промышленный город Рас-Лаффан

$35,857 Объем

22%

Рас-Танура

$37,991 Объем

19%

Месторождение Хурайс

$14,786 Объем

19%

НПЗ Аль-Зур

$30,213 Объем

13%

Нефтеперерабатывающий завод в Абкаике

$38,341 Объем

10%

Месторождение Гавар

$12,229 Объем

10%

Месторождение Сафа́ния

$11,512 Объем

9%

Месторождение Левиафан

$7,662 Объем

8%

Бурдж-Халифа

$8,228 Объем

3%

Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)

$78,280 Объем

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, announced after US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure including petrochemical complexes and bridges, faces tests from America's planned naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to compel nuclear concessions and reopen navigation. Iran has rejected the terms as unreasonable, threatening more devastating strikes on US economic interests and warships if civilian targets are hit, while a recent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia risks broadening the conflict. Pakistani-mediated talks stalled but may resume soon per Trump statements, as UN diplomats urge de-escalation; Iran-backed Houthis have escalated Red Sea attacks, signaling potential proxy retaliation by April 30 amid unresolved ceasefire ambiguities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$464,214
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, announced after US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure including petrochemical complexes and bridges, faces tests from America's planned naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to compel nuclear concessions and reopen navigation. Iran has rejected the terms as unreasonable, threatening more devastating strikes on US economic interests and warships if civilian targets are hit, while a recent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia risks broadening the conflict. Pakistani-mediated talks stalled but may resume soon per Trump statements, as UN diplomats urge de-escalation; Iran-backed Houthis have escalated Red Sea attacks, signaling potential proxy retaliation by April 30 amid unresolved ceasefire ambiguities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$464,214
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 14 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «НПЗ Мина-Аль-Ахмади» с 100%, за ним следует «Нефтепровод Восток–Запад» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $464.2K с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?», просмотри 14 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?» — «НПЗ Мина-Аль-Ахмади» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Нефтепровод Восток–Запад» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Против чего Иран проведет военные действия до 30 апреля?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.