**Eisenkot’s rising independent poll numbers and lack of recent progress toward merger have driven the 93% “No” odds.** In April 2026, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid formed the “Together” (Beyachad) alliance to consolidate the anti-Netanyahu opposition ahead of elections due by October. They publicly invited Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party to join, with reports that Lapid would drop to third on the list to accommodate him. Eisenkot, however, privately described the announcement as a “deep disappointment” because it occurred without prior coordination. Recent polling through mid-June 2026 shows Yashar gaining ground and tying or surpassing Together at roughly 19 seats, reducing Eisenkot’s incentive to merge and cede leadership. No agreement or joint announcement has materialized despite Lapid’s early-June statements anticipating one within weeks. With the June 30 deadline now only days away and Eisenkot maintaining a separate path focused on security credentials and right-leaning voters, traders view a last-minute deal as highly improbable.