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Политика·Трамп

Покончит ли Трамп с Департаментом образования до 2027 года?

Market icon
Политика·Трамп

Покончит ли Трамп с Департаментом образования до 2027 года?

дек. 31

дек. 31

Да

6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Despite aggressive executive actions, including President Trump's March 2025 executive order directing the downsizing of the Department of Education and subsequent interagency agreements transferring over 100 programs to other agencies like the Department of Labor, the agency persists with core functions intact, such as civil rights enforcement and special education oversight under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. Congress has repeatedly rejected full elimination, approving $78.9 billion in funding for fiscal year 2026 in February via bipartisan spending bills that reversed proposed cuts, while H.R. 899 to terminate the department by December 31, 2026, remains unpassed. With only eight months until 2027, traders' 94.5% implied probability on "No" reflects the statutory requirement for legislative repeal amid slim prospects for Senate confirmation or appropriations defunding before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$9,433
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Despite aggressive executive actions, including President Trump's March 2025 executive order directing the downsizing of the Department of Education and subsequent interagency agreements transferring over 100 programs to other agencies like the Department of Labor, the agency persists with core functions intact, such as civil rights enforcement and special education oversight under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. Congress has repeatedly rejected full elimination, approving $78.9 billion in funding for fiscal year 2026 in February via bipartisan spending bills that reversed proposed cuts, while H.R. 899 to terminate the department by December 31, 2026, remains unpassed. With only eight months until 2027, traders' 94.5% implied probability on "No" reflects the statutory requirement for legislative repeal amid slim prospects for Senate confirmation or appropriations defunding before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$9,433
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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