Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton dominates trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District seat, a Cook PVI D+4 rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters including Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Stanton's $1.8 million cash-on-hand dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,000 in the July 21 Democratic primary, while the fragmented Republican primary field—led by Zuhdi Jasser's $299,000—lacks a clear frontrunner capable of competing in the general election on November 3. Recent March 31 finance reports underscored these disparities post-filing deadline, with no polling or developments in the past 30 days altering the race's safe Democratic trajectory amid historical incumbency advantages.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$10,554 ปริมาณ
$10,554 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
12%
$10,554 ปริมาณ
$10,554 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,216 ปริมาณ
87%
Republican Party
$1,338 ปริมาณ
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton dominates trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District seat, a Cook PVI D+4 rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters including Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Stanton's $1.8 million cash-on-hand dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,000 in the July 21 Democratic primary, while the fragmented Republican primary field—led by Zuhdi Jasser's $299,000—lacks a clear frontrunner capable of competing in the general election on November 3. Recent March 31 finance reports underscored these disparities post-filing deadline, with no polling or developments in the past 30 days altering the race's safe Democratic trajectory amid historical incumbency advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,554วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton dominates trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District seat, a Cook PVI D+4 rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters including Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Stanton's $1.8 million cash-on-hand dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,000 in the July 21 Democratic primary, while the fragmented Republican primary field—led by Zuhdi Jasser's $299,000—lacks a clear frontrunner capable of competing in the general election on November 3. Recent March 31 finance reports underscored these disparities post-filing deadline, with no polling or developments in the past 30 days altering the race's safe Democratic trajectory amid historical incumbency advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,554วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton dominates trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District seat, a Cook PVI D+4 rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters including Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Stanton's $1.8 million cash-on-hand dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,000 in the July 21 Democratic primary, while the fragmented Republican primary field—led by Zuhdi Jasser's $299,000—lacks a clear frontrunner capable of competing in the general election on November 3. Recent March 31 finance reports underscored these disparities post-filing deadline, with no polling or developments in the past 30 days altering the race's safe Democratic trajectory amid historical incumbency advantages.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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