Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience that diminish near-term easing prospects. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a 10.9% energy surge—exceeding forecasts and stoking reflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions. Robust March nonfarm payrolls underscored economic strength, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, its Summary of Economic Projections for one 2026 cut later in the year, and minutes signaling openness to hikes. CME Fed funds futures price a steady path near 3.6%, with upcoming April CPI and June FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 81%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 13%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 3.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 2.4%
$3,683,400 ปริมาณ
$3,683,400 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
2%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
13%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
81%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
4%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 81%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 13%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 3.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 2.4%
$3,683,400 ปริมาณ
$3,683,400 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
$165,955 ปริมาณ
2%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$114,790 ปริมาณ
13%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$183,062 ปริมาณ
81%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$3,023,291 ปริมาณ
4%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$196,303 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience that diminish near-term easing prospects. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a 10.9% energy surge—exceeding forecasts and stoking reflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions. Robust March nonfarm payrolls underscored economic strength, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, its Summary of Economic Projections for one 2026 cut later in the year, and minutes signaling openness to hikes. CME Fed funds futures price a steady path near 3.6%, with upcoming April CPI and June FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,683,400วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience that diminish near-term easing prospects. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a 10.9% energy surge—exceeding forecasts and stoking reflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions. Robust March nonfarm payrolls underscored economic strength, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, its Summary of Economic Projections for one 2026 cut later in the year, and minutes signaling openness to hikes. CME Fed funds futures price a steady path near 3.6%, with upcoming April CPI and June FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,683,400วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience that diminish near-term easing prospects. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a 10.9% energy surge—exceeding forecasts and stoking reflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions. Robust March nonfarm payrolls underscored economic strength, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, its Summary of Economic Projections for one 2026 cut later in the year, and minutes signaling openness to hikes. CME Fed funds futures price a steady path near 3.6%, with upcoming April CPI and June FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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