Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus shaped by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside the current 3.50%-3.75% policy range, has reinforced expectations for steady policy through mid-year, consistent with recent dot-plot projections and limited scope for easing. This positioning could face pressure from sharply cooler June inflation or employment data, or unexpected dovish communications ahead of the June 16-17 meeting that alter the rate path outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 5.3%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 1.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน <1%
$9,362,830 ปริมาณ
$9,362,830 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
2%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
5%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
<1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 5.3%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 1.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน <1%
$9,362,830 ปริมาณ
$9,362,830 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
$1,323,158 ปริมาณ
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,043,547 ปริมาณ
2%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$1,396,669 ปริมาณ
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$4,052,250 ปริมาณ
5%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,547,265 ปริมาณ
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus shaped by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside the current 3.50%-3.75% policy range, has reinforced expectations for steady policy through mid-year, consistent with recent dot-plot projections and limited scope for easing. This positioning could face pressure from sharply cooler June inflation or employment data, or unexpected dovish communications ahead of the June 16-17 meeting that alter the rate path outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,362,830วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus shaped by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside the current 3.50%-3.75% policy range, has reinforced expectations for steady policy through mid-year, consistent with recent dot-plot projections and limited scope for easing. This positioning could face pressure from sharply cooler June inflation or employment data, or unexpected dovish communications ahead of the June 16-17 meeting that alter the rate path outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,362,830วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus shaped by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, alongside the current 3.50%-3.75% policy range, has reinforced expectations for steady policy through mid-year, consistent with recent dot-plot projections and limited scope for easing. This positioning could face pressure from sharply cooler June inflation or employment data, or unexpected dovish communications ahead of the June 16-17 meeting that alter the rate path outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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